STUNNING POLL RESULTS – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  Donald Trump got a greater-than-expected bump from his Cleveland convention.  From CNN:

(CNN) The bounce is back.

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.

The new findings mark Trump's best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.

COMMENT:  Trump's job now is to stay on message, which he may not be able to do.  His public comments since the convention have shown a retreat to the off-the-cuff, sometimes incoherent stands he took early in the campaign.  He has to flesh out his message, be prepared to answer questions in detail, and yet maintain the rebel image that has gotten him this far.  The campaign will last three months and a week.

July 25,  2016